“Unlike its sectoral peers who have adopted welfare capitalism, Agriculture seems to be stuck in a socialist trap. For tackling recurring farmer protests & agri-woes directional clarity about the sector is imperative for policymakers”

Ironical as it may seem, across the world reasons for farmer protests have less to do with farming, weather, or food and more with geopolitics. Recent spate of unrests in Europe for example can be traced to war, tariffs, currency, fuel costs, logistics and regulatory wokeism. Similarly, even in post green revolution India, agriculture sectors woes are less about farming and more about political brinkmanship. Solution to these woes therefore may not just lie within the paradigm of farm to food value chain, but even outside.

The world produces more food than it can eat. 300 grams is the quantity of food an average human being can consume in a day across all five food categories. Extrapolated to 8 billion humans, it translates to a food requirement of 875 million tons each year. Double that quantity to feed animals to account for non-vegetarians and the world doesn’t need more than 1750 odd million tons of Agri/Farm-produce of any kind each year. Correspondingly we produce 800 million tons of wheat, 600 million tons of rice, 100 million tons of pulses, a whopping 1200 million tons of corn and much more in cereal, food grain & oil-seeds. Modern inventions like home refrigerator, commercial cold storages, and advanced food processing have further widened the gap between production & consumption. Arithmetically we live in a world of agricultural plenty & that perhaps is at the root of all disgruntlement.

Long ago agriculture stopped being about subsistence and became a sector of the economy. As transaction commerce moved from barter to monetary, agricultural produce became commodity & then cash & farming transitioned from occupation to profession to commerce. To fuel that commerce marketing curated needs beyond just satiating hunger. These needs transcended boundaries in a globalized world & demand got internationalized. Kiwi Fruit from New Zealand in a New Delhi Breakfast and Japanese Edamame in a Johannesburg bar was not a surprise but so was the downside and farmer protests etc. When cassava replaces wheat in African meals, war in Ukraine can impact the Congolese wallets and civil unrest in West Africa can make Choco Latte expensive in Starbucks.

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What then is the solution for the seemingly recurring woes of agriculture? More importantly does the farm sector deserve a solution? Agri-Economy after all accounts for a mere 5% of the 105 trillion global GDP. Development economics hints at an inverse relationship with agriculture. But this can be misleading and risks taking those involved in this important sector lightly. Western Europe perhaps is doing that & facing consequences since the sector accounts for a woeful 1.5% of GDP.

Fact is that agriculture is the most “Real” sector of economy compared to its sectoral peers. Services for example has a disproportionate gross value add and hence skews the sectoral ratio in its own favor. If number of people gainfully employed were a measure of sectoral contribution & importance, then Agri would rank tops. Besides Agriculture is at the deepest foundation of the economy, nay humanity. So, nurturing the sector should be a policy primacy. And this should be the central perspective before we start dealing with the sector.

Contextually for India, a comparison with China offers perspective on why it is important to lock a long-term strategy in dealing with agriculture since both countries feed roughly same number of mouths & employ 40% of its workforce in the sector. It is quite likely that India will follow a similar economic trajectory as China’s. China’s Agri-sector accounts for 7% of its USD 19 Trillion GDP compared to 15% of India’s USD 4 Trillion. Twice the sectoral produce in absolute terms. Chinese arable land though is lesser at 110 million hectares of than India’s 140 million. The productivity difference could well be because of historically distinct politico-economic model. China has a history of state ownership of land & farm collectivization whereas much of our agriculture is still small holdings & single crop farming.

With its economic trajectory India will soon be faced with increased farm productivity and face even more pressures from the aspirations & expectations of a significantly large population dependent on agriculture. Our solutions will have to be different & indigenous. A China like solution of keeping migrant farmers building ghost cities will not suit our democracy & and boosting low employability services sector like in the West will not be pragmatic for our population & demography. We need to find solutions for agriculture within agriculture. For our farmer protest.

As a first step a directional clarity is long overdue. Unlike services & industry who have comfortably adjusted to welfare capitalism, Agriculture seems to be stuck in the socialist trap often behaving like a petulant child that must be tolerated. Without firm clarity policymaking will always be reactionary & vacillating.

India’s Global Trade

An empirical & formal economic classification of farmers distinguishing large farmers from medium & marginal ones has become an urgent imperative. If not done the needs of suppressed masses in the sector will always be held ransom to demands of the rich few.

Education & awareness about economic mainstreaming of agriculture through welfare capitalism at grassroot levels will go a long way. Agri-genzers with access to technology can be reached easily and will appreciate the merits of demanding taxpayer benefit over playing perpetual victim card, obstructionism & fishing for sops.

A proactive Agri sector budgeting like that of its sectoral peers. An objective & target driven approach like aiming to be “N” % if the economy in 2030 employing “X” Million people over “Y” hectares generating “Z” million GVA & planning sectoral investment will have some meaning.

Wokeism in India – Wokistan

An ecosystem level approach to provide Agri entrepreneurship opportunity to Agri genzers promoting Agri SME’s & Agri Startups at block, district, and agricultural university level. Most university grads become sale executives for pesticide & seed companies.

And finally, to get out of the MSP trap demand side policy interventions in the non-food sectors may help. Pharma, energy, petroleum, construction material, pesticides are industries that drive cyclical demand for non-food Agriculture beyond food. In fact, an Agri first view of all the sectors may not just add to sustainability goals but will also keep the sector healthy & prosperous.

Regardless, much has been achieved over the past decade. The DFI (doubling farmers income) project is a comprehensive strategy involving productivity, efficiency, cropping intensity, high value farming, insurance, soil health etc. Yet much seems skewed in favor of supply side. Demand side interventions will be key. Afterall where will all this produce be consumed. Secondly, shifting farm manpower to non-farm occupation is a stated objective. This may not augur well as the downside of urbanization and migration and overdependence on services is there for all to see and learn from experiences elsewhere. Increasing Agri-occupation would be a better option in the long-term.

In the end, Agriculture is the most real sector of the economy. Its economic mainstreaming in a welfare capitalism model is the best possible route to stem recurring protests. A firm directional clarity towards this is an urgent imperative for a robust democracy like India.

MAKING INDIA A HIGHER EDUCATION EXPORTER