Each time I think about India at Olympics, a recurring thought occurs to me. Is there a connection between a countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) & its Olympic medal haul? Plotting Top-10 countries by medals tally at Olympics against Top-10 by GDP offers an interesting insight to infer that some connection does exist.

India’s Global Trade

Barcelona-1992 is a good peg to begin the analysis since boycotts marred the three earlier Olympics. US at Moscow-1980, USSR at Los Angeles-1984 & North Korea at Seoul-1988. The last one held under threat of an ominous bomb scare perpetuated by a Korean airline bombing.

1992 was also a year by when cold war geography had altered in Europe. Berlin wall was breached in 1990. West & East Germany would again participate as one nation. USSR had disintegrated in 1991 and would send a “unified team” for one last time.

For Top-10 ranking by GDP, I used both Nominal GDP at current prices & GDP by PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) since I consider the latter as more realistic and representative. Besides, PPP allowed me to get India in the reference pane and added variety to the country basket. For example, Canada and Spain begin to move out and South Korea and Indonesia come into the frame. Why that happens is for another article. Here I shall stick to medal correlation with GDP.

Generally, barring few exceptions, all Top-10 economies are also amongst the Top-10 in medal haul at Olympics. US and China sit firmly at the top in line with current global economic order. And Germany and France showcase a consistent trend.

Hungary and Ukraine figure just once in the medal haul perhaps getting busy with transitioning to a new post-cold-war world order. Though I have a feeling the Great Magyars will return soon and so will Ukraine.

Russia, the focal point of erstwhile USSR makes for interesting observation. Being amongst Top-2 historically, post disintegration it slips on the nominal GDP ranking. Infact disappears

till Beijing-2008. It however manages to stay in the GDP rankings on PPP basis and by London-2012 it reappears through both routes. But interestingly the nation never drops off the medals ranking. Relative weightage of nominal and PPP GDP for medal correlation could be a point to ponder in detail.

Australia is a sparkling exception and punches way above its GDP might. It does not figure in either of the GDP ranking charts but is always amongst medals. Sign of a true sporting nation.

Likewise, even Cuba was an interesting outlier like Australia. It figured in the medals Top-10 till Beijing 2008 regardless of not being a GDP contender. But suddenly then drops off the list. Noticeably, Fidel Castro’s 49-year reign (As PM & President) also ended in 2008. Some food for thought there.

Spain, Canada, and Italy reflect a slipping medal haul in line with relative position of their economies. Over inflated currencies make Spain and Canada relevant by nominal GDP, but they barely make it on PPP basis. An indication that all-round GDP measure reflects better on medal tally.

Japan punched way below its GDP and came to the Top-10 medals party only in Athens-2004. Post Plaza hedonism and conspicuous consumption of two decades, perhaps as a rebel reaction by its youth to rigorous work ethics of the earlier post war generation could be one reason. But since then Japan seems to have worked to a well-crafted plan.

Ditto for Great Britain. A story of hard work, diligence, and careful planning. They came into the Top-10 medals party only at Sydney-2000. Japan & Great Britain could be useful case studies for India. It also seems from both their examples that an Olympic bid must sub-consciously invigorate a nation to get its sports adrenaline pumping.

South Korea also reflects a GDP and Olympic medal tally correlation. Though it has a spotty appearance in both Medals and GDP ranking and seems to be hanging in there and not giving up.

Indonesia is a recent entrant in the GDP ranking chart through PPP route. Its historical medal performance mirrors India. All its Golds have been in badminton. But a country to watch out for If it stays its course on GDP that is.

WHICH BRINGS ME TO INDIA!

On the cusp of Tokyo-2020 (21) it seems to many that this one will be special. There is all round positivity amongst athletes, administrative ecosystem and public. For the first time we had an involved sports Minister in Kiren Rijiju and the Prime Minister himself. Athletes seem to be “peaking” at the right time, and all seems good.

Prediction? It promises to be Indias best and most broad-based medal haul ever. Pleasant surprises are awaited on bullion and glitter quotient. Efficiency, fraction of those participating to winning may be the best ever. We will emerge as a force to reckon in categories like shooting, wrestling, boxing, archery and badminton. But importantly Tokyo-2020 will be where India begins its journey to align its GDP story with its Olympic medal haul. And like everyone’s, my fingers are crossed.

But to be amongst Top-10 in medal haul is still a few Olympics away. Statistically at least it seems we will have to consistently score on both GDP counts nominal and PPP.

But more importantly we will need to address the mismatch between contingent and event mix. Swimming for example accounts for 35 medal category events and we have a contingent of 3. Athletics has over 70 and we send only 25. There are over 300 medal category events with 1000 winning possibilities and our contingent size is barely 125.

And that’s where the connection between GDP & Olympic Medal Tally lies. Leading economies invest heavily in sports with a micro-managed planning for each discipline both from the perspective of width and depth. Learnings from South Korea, Great Britain & Japan will be useful. And a bid for Olympics will accelerate our efforts. We have truly begun only now. The fact remains that great nation is also a great sporting nation.

And we will have to wait till Paris-2024 or even Los Angeles-2028 to get some equity between our medal rank with GDP rank. Till then let’s take in the spirit of sports and the Olympics …  Faster, Higher, Stronger … forever. For few things unite a nation and the world like sport.