astra-sites domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home4/retai2iy/vikramlimsay.com/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131all-in-one-wp-migration domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home4/retai2iy/vikramlimsay.com/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131For decades the United States has enjoyed a silent monetary advantage being the de facto global currency hegemon. As custodian of the worlds reserve currency together with its ability to inflate & overvalue the dollar at will, the United States has had disproportionate influence in shaping rules of trade in its favour while insulating itself from the vulnerabilities others must bear. Not only has it tilted global trade in its favour distorting competitiveness & suppressing equitable exchange but has also used the dollar to develop economic, political & even military muscle which it has not even shied away from using.
Free & fair trade with the US is a myth in the face of its unparalleled currency advantage. True free trade assumes a level playing field where currencies reflect economic fundamentals & trade flows respond to comparative advantage, not self-incentivising monetary structures. Today none of the western currencies, including the dollar reflects the strength of their respective economies. Yet the US & the West are able enforce their currency dominance over others.
In this light, tariffs may not be unfair trade barriers, but rather attempts at restoring balance by others to offset this unfair currency advantage that the US enjoys. A mechanism of equity rather than protectionism. Imposition of tariffs by these nations is not a declaration of hostility but a defensive correction. A response to decades of monetary asymmetry & a desperate effort to level the playing field of global trade.
Through historical serendipity born out of post war monetary mechanism created at Bretton Woods, the US emerged as the custodian of the worlds reserve currency in the US Dollar. As a global custodian it was incumbent upon the US to use this monetary privilege in a fair & just manner for the benefit of all without parochial self-interest. But did it? Nixon shock, Plaza accord, weaponizing the dollar, printing at will, sanctions, creating debt to subsidise inefficiency, running persistent trade deficits yet maintaining its purchasing power do not assure us that they did. It has in fact often used its privilege to use the dollar less as a medium of exchange & more as an instrument of economic pressure. Often a silent weapon wielded without declaration.
Much of the western world too has benefited from its umbilical association with the US gaining a currency advantage over others. & remember this advantage was on top of the colonial advantage these countries had for at least two centuries before that !
Nowhere is the burden of this currency imbalance felt more acutely than in emerging economies. These nations, reliant on exports & foreign capital, find themselves trapped in a game where rules are dictated by currency values beyond their control. Their industries struggle to compete, their intellectual power is bought out cheap, their natural resources are exploited & their monetary policies are constrained by the need to maintain currency stability. Tariffs, in this context, become a tool of survival, not protectionism.
But being in a comfort zone & privilege of buying cheap from whoever & wherever you desire can be a twin edged sword. It corrodes your own ability to manufacture & sell to the world. & this really is the problem the West & the US faces. To then blame tariffs or China or India for its manufacturing woes would be missing the woods for the trees really.
A misplaced persecution complex that the world has been unfair to the US & that retaliatory tariffs are justified may be short sighted & not yield the desired result to kickstart domestic industry inside the United States. Because tariffs after all mere tactical & even temporary trade related tools. It is the currency & exchange rate that are more fundamental in impacting a country’s ability to manufacture & sell globally.
The US may even succeed through its Geopolitical muscle to arm-twist everyone to fall in line on tariffs but it would take some political gut to tweak its own currency downward to get manufacturing back on its feet again. The latter will mean facing the risk of inflation & rising prices of essentials in the short run. Will the average American accustomed to cheap holidays in Asia, cheap gas, inexpensive maple syrup & eggs have the patience to bear the consequence? And will even the American corporations who enjoy the dollar advantage like welcome a devalued dollar?
But one thing is certain. The time for rebalancing exchange rate discrepancies & by incidence asymmetries of global trade is on us. & this rebalancing will require a sober reassessment of both tariff policy & currency frameworks. Focusing on the former & brushing the latter under the carpet will not do. And it will call for mature accountability from the US & its currency allies in the West. Exchange rates will have to reflect realistic relative strength of countries that promote genuine competitiveness.
This rebalancing will in fact benefit the US & West in the long run. But the process may be a bitter pill to swallow. What could be the options ? Go back to gold standard ? May not be practical. Accounting for 8000 tonnes of gold that the US is rumoured to hold barely translates to a Trillion USD at the current gold price of 3000 USD per ounce. Not enough to justify the status of a global reserve currency. Or Crypto perhaps? But then regulation & blockchain will necessitate a democratic & equitable monetary structure. Will the US be ready to give us its currency sceptre & crown easily?
Tariffs after all are not the disease but a symptom of a deeper malaise. If the world is to move toward a fairer, more inclusive trade system, it must first confront the hidden hierarchies embedded in its monetary architecture. The primary responsibility for this lies with the incumbent currency hegemon, the US. Condemning just tariffs would be misreading the entire moment.
]]>Geo-Politics is a key determinant in the way our connected world functions & resolves its conflicts. Unresolved conflicts are wounds & sores that fester through war & destruction. And as conflicts become complex wars are becoming asymmetric with technology adding a dimension beyond unthinkable. The recent micro-targeted attacks with handheld devices blowing up at the click of a remotely operated button is an example of this new dimension. Add to that the study of the complex global supply chain & its elements, the assembly process, identifying supply chain elements, implanting micro explosives in the hardware, programing malware & selective triggering of explosion must be complex operation of the next level that the Israelis must have executed that too after secretly developing the system in a modular format over years.
In the context of India though the spotlight must bring to focus the critical risk that India must navigate as it marches along on its socio, political & economic goals in becoming a leading economy. Overt enemies, covert deep state & the enemy within will all try to impede & derail the progress. After all the world is ideologically polarized & for them India which ranks one on population & seventh on land area is an attractive hunting ground to subsume to their ideology. For some merely curating a conflict has been a trusted way to economic & financial hegemony and hence for them to instigate, unsettle & destabilize India is not off syllabus.
Tech, electronics, manufacturing, production etc. will play a key role in these asymmetric wars. If these are not in our control or worse still in the hands of our detractors or even if controlled by those feigning neutrality can spell disaster. We got a flavor in the Kargil war when US denied satellite navigation-based GPS data to our forces. Thankfully ISRO stood up to the challenge & our own space program obviated any further need from outside. Even today our TEJAS is being held to ransom for a small Danish component that they won’t export! Imagine if Indian Railway KAVACH system was held to similar ransom. It would be a disaster bigger than some moron’s placing alloy wheels on tracks or removing fishplates. Or for that matter how our own Covaxin by Bharat Biotech saved us from an assured Bio disaster during the pandemic. Imagine the relaxed insurance of being the second largest cell phone manufacturer in the context of what we saw in Lebanon and contrast that with when we were importing most of our cell phones from anonymous facilities. It’s not being alarmist but then whoever thought twelve hundred pagers could blow-up in pant pockets at once!
This incident in the Levant must renew & strengthen our resolve to focus on manufacturing especially Defence manufacturing along with electronic, avionics, shipbuilding, artillery software, hardware, semiconductors etc. Defence startups & SMEs must be encouraged & application driven research in our engineering schools must be aggressively funded. Thankfully much has happened over last ten years. Space program has accelerated, HAL Is seeing action, BRAHMOS is being exported, SEMICON mission is on its way, public sector Defence companies such as Bharat Dynamics & Bharat Electronics have become refreshingly aggressive.
Defence manufacturing will by incidence positively impact the manufacturing sector. A sector that missed the bus as we hop skipped from Agri to Services & the reason we lag. After all the hockey stick like growth in the Semicon industry came just as the USAF realized their missile guiding system was inaccurately spraying all around Vietnamese targets. And we know what the Oppenheimer Project, Hughes & others did for early development of the Bay area.
On another note, we saw a rally in Defence Stock on the bourses that has gone cold in the last few months. I don’t see why it should not once again return considering these events. But whatever it be, the last thing we want in times of critical conflict is the country to be held ransom for the lack of a nut-bolt or an electronic component or even a bullet proof underwear. More so in the warfare of future with micro targeting with technology tools.
The importance of Make-In-India at least in Defence manufacturing cannot be understated!
]]>While the Olympic medal count over the last decade or so has been higher than total medals won before that since independence it is still far from respectable for a country like India. Besides much of the achievement can be attributed to individual enterprise & less to a planned institutional program. Signature programs like Khelo India & TOPS have added some focus but much needs to be done to aid the trickle-down impact to the grassroots. Am attempting a few suggestions with the experience of my association with sport.
Policy Stability
If Union Ministers for important portfolios liked Finance & Defence can remain constant, why not Sports? Sports by its nature requires policy stability. A sportsperson plans for the long term & adheres to a strict roadmap & if policy is stable along that roadmap, it just helps in results.
Aquatics, Athletics & Gymnastics
These three disciplines are the largest medal winning categories at Olympics. If we don’t focus on these three there is no point even discussing, why we don’t get a respectable medal haul. While Athletics Federation Of India can be seen doing some work, It is anyone’s guess what the Swimming Federation Of India & Gymnastic Federation of India are doing. Would be great to know about their stellar achievements these two.
Federation Accountability.
In India every Olympic sport has a policy executing arm in its federation. While some do good work most are a political & bureaucratic dynastic cesspool. Even if no athlete for a sport is represented at Olympics the office bearers get privileged viewing seats for these events and they religiously attend. It must be incumbent on every federation to publish a 5-year roadmap of a grassroot to Olympic plan along with resource allocation & specific athlete & event calendar on their website.
States Commitment
Thankfully sports have moved from state to concurrent list aiding possibility of central programs being implemented. But most states themselves fall woefully short of their individual commitment to sport. Many get away by mere lip service in their annual budget allocating peanuts for prize money & grants rather than making any meaningful infrastructure related commitment.
State-Corporate-Federation Partnership
Large corporations like Tatas, Reliance & Adani through their foundations are already supporting sports but a focused tripartite partnership can yield magical returns. Orissa for example has been a beacon when it comes to hockey along with Hockey Federation of India. If the sports ministry can broker a tripartite partnership through an open & public call results will be guaranteed.
Defence
Our Defence Services have been doing yeoman service to sports especially in disciplines such as rowing & sailing probably because of facility access. A selection of discipline should be left to the forces with full funding backup by the sports ministry with no federation interference.
Full Overlap Plan
The event plan for LA2028 has been firmed up. There are approximately 35 disciplines with 350 medal events. The vision endeavor should be to qualify for all disciplines with a contingent size that at least exceeds the number of events. An immediate national level planning conclave should be called without delay to address a roadmap.
TOGS not just TOPS – the need of the day.
Target Olympics Podium Scheme (TOPS) is the flagship program of the sports ministry to support elite athletes but what is perhaps required is a Target Olympic “Grassroot” Scheme that aids identifying talent in organized & unorganized catchments. For the life of me I can’t imagine why we can’t get kids to qualify for gymnastic with our Yoga & Mallakhamb tradition. Or for that matter find swimmers from amongst kids in our coastal states or riparian cities.
“KREEDAPATH” like “AGNIPATH”
Perhaps there is a case for sports ministry to fashion a “KreedaPath” program on the lines of “AgniPath” by the Defence Ministry. A short-term sports enlistment program where selected young athletes are funded with an incentive-based exit lumpsum once they are done with their sporting career. A disciplined ex-sportsperson can be as valuable as a disciplined ex-serviceman to society & will go a long way in spreading a sporting culture. The application process for KreedaPath can be based on best practices adopted for AgniPath.
All the above suggestions can be implemented only if there is committed sports-policy stability at the top. We have the money & operational imperatives like infrastructure, coaches etc. will fall in place once policy direction is firm.
LA2028; India your time starts now – else another medal ignominy looms on a not-so-distant horizon!
]]>Differing timeline is the reason behind this paradox of electoral-politics. The hyper competitive electioneering phase must be completed in a super tight timeline of a few weeks where winning is crucial. Governance on the other hand is a job that is to be executed over an extended timeline of five years. Electioneering therefore is like a T20 cricket game where even the first ball must be hit beyond the park. Add to this reduced attention span of people which makes the timeline factor more challenging.
So, it’s a game of perception & judgement that is played over these two phases. In the short campaigning face appealing to emotion to create a desired perception is a low-risk high-return option over appealing to someone’s rational instinct & trying to evoke a judgement. Emotions are matters of heart, not necessarily logical & translate immediately into perceptions. Rationality is a matter of intellect, logical, feeds on data & gets processed over time to translates into a judgement. Hence during electioneering phase when time is at a premium, appealing to emotion gives better & faster return. Feeding rational data of achievements, explaining & then waiting for intellect to process, and come to a favorable judgement can be suicidal for the politician in this crucial phase.
Few other things work in favor of the emotional over rational in the short campaigning phase. Human emotions such as love, fear, hate, greed etc. are homogenous & universal. Homing in on one to build a message around it is easy. “Ab ki Baar Modi Sarkaar”, “Garibi Hatao”, “Sab ka Saath, Sab ka Vikas”, “Make America Great Again”, “Take Back Control” are examples of successful emotive campaigns. Human intellect though is not homogenous & different people can process identical data differently & come to different judgements. Hence rational campaigning has low success rate. Imagine a rational campaign on a roadworks data set like “Chattees Kilometer Har Din”. Can be interpreted differently & doesn’t even seem attractive !
Further, messaging based on emotional appeal has a built-in entry barrier. It cannot be copied & is very difficult for a rival party to take a contrarian position. For example, in case of “Garibi Hatao”, it is difficult to counter it with either “Amiri Hatao” or “Amiri Badhao”. Just doesn’t stick, doesn’t it? And the rival is cornered. One other advantage that an emotive appeal has over the rational is that it cannot be measured or quantified or compared & hence is beyond debate. A rational appeal on the other had is open to all three since it is the intellects job to analyze & judge. Example for instance is a emotional statement like “I love you”. Little to debate about this statement. But try answering “how much do you love me?” & you are in a quantification quandary. Get the drift? That’s why “Chaar Sau Paar” a message bordering on the rational is risky & therefore perhaps has been quickly & judiciously relegated to the backstage. Because a “number” always agitates the intellect & can fall prey to debate, interpretation & judgement. Similarly, “Caste Census” or “Wealth Distribution” have no hope. “Census”, “wealth”, “distribution” are all empirical & rational terms that appeal to the intellect and can be easily rationally debated & countered.
Seasoned politicians understand this paradox of electoral-politics. The short electioneering phase must be necessarily emotional, devoid of much logic but with the potential to create immediate perception. The long governance phase on the other hand must appeal to the rational giving empirical evidence of on ground achievements where people have time to experience, intellectually evaluate & judge.
Electoral politics is one of the most difficult combat-zone not meant for the faint hearted. Experienced politicians are consummate players who understand human psychology & this paradox. Everything they do, the how, the what & the why is by deliberate design. The act of balancing the rational with and the emotional is an art the best amongst them have mastered.
For those on the outside, there is no point just getting agitated. In fact, there is much to observe and learn. And even to enjoy in this dance of democracy. The masters are at play!
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It is mere trivia yet interesting to note that in the recently proposed vote on account the finance minister presented a USD 14 B budget for the Union Territory of J&K for FY 2023-24, only a fraction less than the total USD 50 Billion budget of Pakistan.
Comparison with our neighbor is relevant since that country has always postured as interested party in Kashmir in a putative dispute with some from our side even giving it legitimacy. But mere posturing does not fill stomachs. But empty stomachs are ideal to incite a desperate populace. And that in summary has been the strategy of that country to keep Kashmir hopeless.
Prime Minister Modis first rally in Srinagar after abrogation of Article 357 is itself a stark contrast to his own Ekta Yatra in 1992 when he unfurled the National Flag in Lal Chowk and exemplifies the contrasting fortunes of J&K. Last four years inclusive of the pandemic year has been an exercise in laying the foundation of hope aided by oodles of spending. The budgetary allocation has been consistently over USD 13-14 Billion not including the USD 0.75 Billion for Ladakh UT and other centrally funded projects.
Green shoots of hope can be seen. Infrastructure projects grab the headlines rather than violence. Barring stray & intermittent attempts by our neighbor, Kashmir is on its way to economically integrate with the rest of the country, and it is only a matter of time when artificially created fault lines will be ironed out and emotional and mental integration will follow.
It’s been a long hiatus of over four decades. Many hoped and gave up wanting to see Shammi Kapoor & Asha Parekh to romance in Chashmshahi once again, that the Shikara in Dal rocks, that the rug in the drawing room is a Namda and the writing desk of exotically carved walnut.
And that hope seems to be in sight. Maybe Ranveer & Deepika can create the same magic, honeymooners find paradise, Gulmarg has its ski slopes full, and the rocking Shikara has company of jet skis on the waters of Nageen … and the youth have a mouse and kahwa in their hands and not a stone & with Kashmir’s Infrastructure of Hope, Srinagar emerges as bustling T2 powerhouse of the country.
Hope now has a chance!
https://swarajyamag.com/analysis/kashmir-laying-the-infrastructure-of-hope
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“Unlike its sectoral peers who have adopted welfare capitalism, Agriculture seems to be stuck in a socialist trap. For tackling recurring farmer protests & agri-woes directional clarity about the sector is imperative for policymakers”
Ironical as it may seem, across the world reasons for farmer protests have less to do with farming, weather, or food and more with geopolitics. Recent spate of unrests in Europe for example can be traced to war, tariffs, currency, fuel costs, logistics and regulatory wokeism. Similarly, even in post green revolution India, agriculture sectors woes are less about farming and more about political brinkmanship. Solution to these woes therefore may not just lie within the paradigm of farm to food value chain, but even outside.
The world produces more food than it can eat. 300 grams is the quantity of food an average human being can consume in a day across all five food categories. Extrapolated to 8 billion humans, it translates to a food requirement of 875 million tons each year. Double that quantity to feed animals to account for non-vegetarians and the world doesn’t need more than 1750 odd million tons of Agri/Farm-produce of any kind each year. Correspondingly we produce 800 million tons of wheat, 600 million tons of rice, 100 million tons of pulses, a whopping 1200 million tons of corn and much more in cereal, food grain & oil-seeds. Modern inventions like home refrigerator, commercial cold storages, and advanced food processing have further widened the gap between production & consumption. Arithmetically we live in a world of agricultural plenty & that perhaps is at the root of all disgruntlement.
Long ago agriculture stopped being about subsistence and became a sector of the economy. As transaction commerce moved from barter to monetary, agricultural produce became commodity & then cash & farming transitioned from occupation to profession to commerce. To fuel that commerce marketing curated needs beyond just satiating hunger. These needs transcended boundaries in a globalized world & demand got internationalized. Kiwi Fruit from New Zealand in a New Delhi Breakfast and Japanese Edamame in a Johannesburg bar was not a surprise but so was the downside and farmer protests etc. When cassava replaces wheat in African meals, war in Ukraine can impact the Congolese wallets and civil unrest in West Africa can make Choco Latte expensive in Starbucks.
What then is the solution for the seemingly recurring woes of agriculture? More importantly does the farm sector deserve a solution? Agri-Economy after all accounts for a mere 5% of the 105 trillion global GDP. Development economics hints at an inverse relationship with agriculture. But this can be misleading and risks taking those involved in this important sector lightly. Western Europe perhaps is doing that & facing consequences since the sector accounts for a woeful 1.5% of GDP.
Fact is that agriculture is the most “Real” sector of economy compared to its sectoral peers. Services for example has a disproportionate gross value add and hence skews the sectoral ratio in its own favor. If number of people gainfully employed were a measure of sectoral contribution & importance, then Agri would rank tops. Besides Agriculture is at the deepest foundation of the economy, nay humanity. So, nurturing the sector should be a policy primacy. And this should be the central perspective before we start dealing with the sector.
Contextually for India, a comparison with China offers perspective on why it is important to lock a long-term strategy in dealing with agriculture since both countries feed roughly same number of mouths & employ 40% of its workforce in the sector. It is quite likely that India will follow a similar economic trajectory as China’s. China’s Agri-sector accounts for 7% of its USD 19 Trillion GDP compared to 15% of India’s USD 4 Trillion. Twice the sectoral produce in absolute terms. Chinese arable land though is lesser at 110 million hectares of than India’s 140 million. The productivity difference could well be because of historically distinct politico-economic model. China has a history of state ownership of land & farm collectivization whereas much of our agriculture is still small holdings & single crop farming.
With its economic trajectory India will soon be faced with increased farm productivity and face even more pressures from the aspirations & expectations of a significantly large population dependent on agriculture. Our solutions will have to be different & indigenous. A China like solution of keeping migrant farmers building ghost cities will not suit our democracy & and boosting low employability services sector like in the West will not be pragmatic for our population & demography. We need to find solutions for agriculture within agriculture. For our farmer protest.
As a first step a directional clarity is long overdue. Unlike services & industry who have comfortably adjusted to welfare capitalism, Agriculture seems to be stuck in the socialist trap often behaving like a petulant child that must be tolerated. Without firm clarity policymaking will always be reactionary & vacillating.
An empirical & formal economic classification of farmers distinguishing large farmers from medium & marginal ones has become an urgent imperative. If not done the needs of suppressed masses in the sector will always be held ransom to demands of the rich few.
Education & awareness about economic mainstreaming of agriculture through welfare capitalism at grassroot levels will go a long way. Agri-genzers with access to technology can be reached easily and will appreciate the merits of demanding taxpayer benefit over playing perpetual victim card, obstructionism & fishing for sops.
A proactive Agri sector budgeting like that of its sectoral peers. An objective & target driven approach like aiming to be “N” % if the economy in 2030 employing “X” Million people over “Y” hectares generating “Z” million GVA & planning sectoral investment will have some meaning.
An ecosystem level approach to provide Agri entrepreneurship opportunity to Agri genzers promoting Agri SME’s & Agri Startups at block, district, and agricultural university level. Most university grads become sale executives for pesticide & seed companies.
And finally, to get out of the MSP trap demand side policy interventions in the non-food sectors may help. Pharma, energy, petroleum, construction material, pesticides are industries that drive cyclical demand for non-food Agriculture beyond food. In fact, an Agri first view of all the sectors may not just add to sustainability goals but will also keep the sector healthy & prosperous.
Regardless, much has been achieved over the past decade. The DFI (doubling farmers income) project is a comprehensive strategy involving productivity, efficiency, cropping intensity, high value farming, insurance, soil health etc. Yet much seems skewed in favor of supply side. Demand side interventions will be key. Afterall where will all this produce be consumed. Secondly, shifting farm manpower to non-farm occupation is a stated objective. This may not augur well as the downside of urbanization and migration and overdependence on services is there for all to see and learn from experiences elsewhere. Increasing Agri-occupation would be a better option in the long-term.
In the end, Agriculture is the most real sector of the economy. Its economic mainstreaming in a welfare capitalism model is the best possible route to stem recurring protests. A firm directional clarity towards this is an urgent imperative for a robust democracy like India.
]]>Trade drives the texture of relationship between nations and is a primary determinant of policy making. The grand game of global trade is played on the chessboard of geopolitics where policymakers make the rules and diplomacy is their skill. Entrepreneurs who understand this make winning moves. Iconic entrepreneurs like Rockefeller, Dhirubhai and Lee of Samsung are known to have had this native skill which helped them not just build empires but in turn even impact policy. But for those not blessed with native skills, observing soft diplomacy overtures, and analyzing trade data between nations can assist in indicating which way trade winds are blowing & where do opportunities lie.
Global trade is indicative of an engaged world bringing nations closer & diplomatic overtures are its visible manifestations. Head of State visits, cultural exchanges, awards, conferences, aid and even conflicts are all examples. Since more than a third of the USD 105 T (Trillion) global GDP gets traded beyond national boundaries in an increasingly collaborative world, soft diplomacy is on the rise and makes for keen observation.
India is a civilizational global trading economy. Our unique geographical position at the intersection of a vast northern hemispherical land mass and southern hemispherical oceans have serendipitously & strategically placed us on terrestrial & maritime trade routes since millennia. Healthy tropical weather & abundant biota has added to this geographical advantage. Not surprising then that from Marco Polo to Zheng He & many before them have traversed our land. And even before that our own from Kushans to Cholas commanded trading influence from Bukhara to Batavia and beyond.
India’s global trade FY 2022-23 was USD 1.6 T (Trillion). Goods & merchandise constituted USD 1.16 T & Services another USD 500 B (Billion). A deficit of 266 B in merchandise, largely contributed by petroleum (115 B) & precious gems (35 B) was compensated by a surplus of 145 B by our services trade keeping the overall deficit at 122 B. (For China watchers: its merchandise trade at 6 T far outstrips ours, but its services trade is only a tad higher at USD 800 B and that too with a deficit of 50 B)
Broad contours of trade policy are easy to predict then. Reduce dependence on fossils, develop alternatives, substitute imports, focus on manufacturing, increase exports & value adds, boost services exports, reduce services imports etc. The logic behind governments programmatic announcement like “Make in India”, “AtmaNirbhar”, “Ethanol Blended Program (EBP)”, “Atal Innovation Mission”, “Gati Shakti” & even casual suggestions like “Wed in India” then become clear. A deep dive into individual sectors & geographies offers further insight into how programmatic announcements translate to implementable schemes.
For instance, the electrical machinery & equipment segment. At USD 70 B it accounts for our third highest import bill after petroleum & gemstones. Policymakers have targeted the segment strategically & with intent and results can be seen. Cellphone imports that were 3.5 B in 2017-18 are down to a meagre 33 M (Million) in 22-23. We are now a cellphone manufacturing powerhouse. “Production Linked Incentive” (PLI) scheme is the governments flagship intervention under its AtmaNirbhar & Make in India programs. The scheme extends other import substitutable products like laptops, notebooks, consumer electronics etc. No surprises then that companies like Amber, Dixon etc. are rock stars on bourses and consumer electronic startup like BOAT is a darling of masses. Toys, chemicals, plastics, defense, jewelry, and many other categories will present similar opportunities in future.
We export over USD 105 B worth of engineering goods each year. Our largest commodity export, bigger than processed petroleum and jewelry reexport. In addition to steel & non-ferrous metals, Indian engineering products from process plants to boilers to automotive, railway & spacecraft parts are finding increasing acceptance overseas. The Foreign Trade Policy (FTP 2023) announced by GOI has renewed focus on export initiatives such as Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) Scheme & Free Trade agreement (FTA). Under the former, programs like “Vivaad Se Vishwas Tak” aim at legacy dispute resolutions & FTA’s though progressing gingerly are being drafted with sharper commercial intent as indicated by the FTA utilisation figures of the recently signed deals with UAE (CEPA) and Australia (ECTA).
Services trade, where we have an edge, promises to be an ocean of opportunity. Afterall 7 T worth services are traded globally & is increasing. Much of the 320 B Indian services export is dominated by IT & digitally delivered services. Further incentives are being offered tech majors to set up Global Competency Centers (GCC) to boost the sector. Programs such as Gati Shakti will benefit services like logistics & transport. Our services import bill of 177 B has substitution opportunity. Educational services for instance. We have a civilizational edge in the domain, yet we have a USD 15 B import bill each year a situation that can be easily reversed. Further innovative non-traditional opportunities are likely to emerge. Who knows, as suggested by the PM Modi “Wed In India” & “Band Baaja Baraat” can indeed be a money spinner.
The United States (USD 129 Billion 2022-23) followed by China (USD 114 Billion 2022-23) are India’s two biggest merchandise trading partners. Figures appear close but there is a difference. While we have a balanced trade with the US, in fact a surplus, we have a deficit with China to whom we export only a sixth of what we import. It requires deft manoeuvring when dynamics between your lead customer and primary vendor itself is complicated & independence in policymaking seems the best way forward and there is significant headroom to increase trade with both.
While US & China hog limelight in any discussion about India’s trading partners, a regional block or country wise overview throws up interesting insights of where opportunities might be.
In North America, though Canada (8 B) is more visible in Indian media, it is Mexico (9 B) that is our second biggest merchandise trading partner. It is in fact the biggest export destination for our automobiles. Not surprising that Hyundai retains some distinctly Mexican names like Alcazar, Santa Fe & Tucson even for India. Canada of course exports significant educational services but their recent diplomatic adventurism is sure to impact trade adversely. First six months of this year prove the point. Conversely symbolism like the President of the Mexican Senate Ana Lilia Rivera tying a Rakhee to PM Modi during a G20 meeting points at warmth in relationship that is sure to reflect positively in trade with that country.
The CIS region (Commonwealth of Independent State) offers a stark example of how Geo-Political event impacts trade. Our modest trade with Ukraine (2 B), mostly agri-imports, has come to a naught because of their conflict. Correspondingly & consequently, petro-diplomacy has made Russia our fifth largest trading partner (43 B) from before when it barely figured amongst our top 25. We bought 37 B worth mineral & oil up from 5 B in earlier years. Wartime & post wartime have in any case presented the best business opportunity historically.
Petro-diplomacy impact is also seen in Europe. Netherlands (USD 28 B) was our top trading partner in the region in 22-23 & is our largest export destination after US & UAE. Rotterdam port is clearly balancing petroleum short supply to Europe from Russia via India. Our petro exports doubled to 12 B to that country. Explains spurt in photo ops of PM Rutte cycling & sipping tea in India. Traditionally, Germany (27 B) & UK (20 B) are our biggest trading partners with a surplus & deficit respectively. Engineering hub Germany is the source for much of our engineering equipment needs and for UK we are their largest scotch buyer! Trade data of European nations reflects their economic trajectory. France & Italy rank lower each year & Switzerland & Belgium are largely restricted to gems & jewelry trade with us. India-Middle East-Europe corridor (IMEC) promises to boost trade with Europe & also bring in Greece & Balkans in the picture. But till then services trade has a steeper opportunity trajectory.
UAE (85 B) & Saudi (53 B) in West Asia & North Africa (WANA) region are our third & fourth largest trading partners in the world. While imports are petroleum led, change in texture of our exports is noticeable. Electrical & engineering goods have an increased share than a decade ago when it was mostly jewelry, Agri-products & cereals. Future of fossils is forcing nations in the region to reengineer their economic model & India seems to be key in their plans. No surprises then that West Asia has seen maximum instances of soft diplomacy in recent years. UAE’s President Mohamed Bin Zayed as Republic Day chief guest, “Order of the Zayed” & “King Abdul Aziz Sash” bestowed on PM Modi, official mourning day on the death of Kuwait’s Emir, Omani Sultan first visit after decades, BAPS temple in Abu Dhabi are examples. FDI has increased from this region in public & private ventures like Indian Oil, Reliance and even the first FDI in Kashmir was from this region!
Our trade even with Israel (10 B) has doubled in the region & with a healthy surplus. The I2U2 alliance proves we have the capability to do business even with putatively incompatible nations. Even in North Africa symbolic gestures like inviting Egypt’s President El-Sisi as the guest of honor for Republic Day, space-tech collaboration with Tunisia & Algeria and proactive humanitarian aid to Morocco indicates India is actively testing trade waters in the region. The Indian embassy in Tripoli has also reopened after a gap & a resurgent & oil aided Libya, amongst the fastest growing economies in the world once again promises to be a exciting trade partner like before.
Pakistan in our neighborhood is a stark example of political imperative adversely impacting trade and its posturing has even finished off SAARC our regional trade block. Our trade with Pakistan which was 3 B a decade ago has dried to a trickle. Most Indian imports into Pakistan are through UAE and must be contributing to their inflationary woes. Bangladesh (14 B) has trotted along to make it to our top 25 trading partner list. And Sri Lanka as it crawls out of its economic emergency with our help will emerge as a dependable trade partner. Learning for all; since neighbors can’t be chosen its best to keep relationship amicable.
On Republic Day 2018, in a departure from tradition all ASEAN chiefs were invited enblock as guests of honor. Symbolism of this gesture was in line with our look east policy with an eye on trade. Comparing trade numbers from immediately following year 2018-19 with 2022-23 shows that Indonesia (39 B) Singapore (36 B) & Malaysia (20B) our major partners in the region have all grown by 84%, 50% & 70% respectively. Malaysia a bit subdued perhaps because of the brakes we put on palm oil imports as a reaction to their stance against us in OIC as a group with Turkiye & Pakistan. Trade with Vietnam (13 B) has remained flat as that country is also like India aggressively focused on its trade balance and has in fact emerged as an option in the China Pus strategy of global corporations. India & Vietnam will emerge as a collaborative trade partner in domains like EV & Telecom.
Australia (26 B) and Japan (22 B) remain consistent partners in the Oceania region. Former a large supplier of minerals and latter of technology & engineering. QUAD grouping of these two with India born out Geo-Strategic imperatives will only increase collaboration and by incidence trade. Australia seems to be coming out of the Five Eyes (FVEY) shadow and is engaging independently with India. No Indian PM had made a state visit to that country in 30 years till PM Modi broke the ice in 2014. Ever since trade ties have more than doubled from 12 to 26 B and with the visible warmth between PM Albanese more opportunity areas will emerge. Japan through JICA their developmental agency is significantly invested in India’s long term infrastructural projects in any case and with our infrastructure story having just begun trade opportunities will only increase.
An emerging opportunity in Oceania region are the small island nations with whom we do little on no trade. PM Modi has innovatively disrupted the nomenclature paradigm by referring to these “small island nations” as “large ocean countries”. This has totally changed the scale size and potential of this region and opened significant opportunity in areas such as marine agriculture, pisciculture besides opening channels for services trade.
Africa promises to be a sunrise region for our global trade. Together contributing less than 4% of global GDP the continent is experiencing a spate of nationalistic movements in many nations as well as a combined pride in Pan-Africanism. Economy is high on agenda. A third of the 6% plus GDP growth economies are African nations. Inherently wary of erstwhile rapacious colonial powers and distrustful of debt tyranny of China, African nations are comforted by their historical affinity with India. Vaccine diplomacy & onboarding of African Union in to G20 under India presidency add to the comfort. Many amongst the middle-class that include diplomats, bureaucrats & professionals have received their education in India. Currently South Africa (18 B) is our only significant trading partner in the region but Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Nigeria, Mozambique, Congo will offer trade opportunities in future. Politically stability in some other nations will only add to the list. Agri imports, mining, exports of heavy engineering are domains to watch out for. Services trade in IT, education and tourism is an area to watch for.
South American nations are grappling & experimenting with its economic model. Socialism & free market capitalism seem to be competing in this last bastion of the former. Our trade with Brazil the largest economy & a co-member in BRICS has doubled from 7 B to 15 B over the last five years with a trade surplus in our favor. President Lula Da Silva known as pragmatic socialist, was the recipient of the Indira Gandhi peace award in 2010 and his predecessor Bolsonaro was the chief guest on Republic Day as recently as 2020. Brazil is the first country from the continent to ever figure in our top 25 trading partner list. Argentina (5 B) the next biggest economy has just witnessed a transition and under the new President Javier Milei who is grappling with hyperinflation. Once hopefully in control trade is sure to take off with them. Even in their current state we import over 2 B worth plant & animal based edible oil from them.
In the end, the world is the opportunity for India. Our share of global trade is less that 5% and there is much headroom to grow. Pragmatic diplomacy & policy making have established our reputation as fair partners in trade. The golden period for global trading opportunity is ahead. Entrepreneurs must take educated steps as complexities of global trade are multi-dimensional.
(Note: All figures are latest official figures for 2022-23 rounded off to suit the text. Figures in bracket against each country indicates total trade. E&OE are only mine)
]]>GDP & Olympic Medals – A Connection What can be Indias sporting future
I pen this article in the backdrop of some recent milestones. Opening of Apple’s first store in Mumbai two decades after it entered India, UN report on population pegging India at the top of the population chart over China for the first time ever and LVMH CEO & luxury Moghul Bernard Arnaut pipping Elon Musk to the post as the world’s richest person. Friends, overseas and Indian, especially in the luxury industry often ask why with a similar 1.4 billion population luxury goods penetration in India is low compared to China. Even at a policy level it begs a fair question why a democratic free market mixed economy state scores low on luxury consumption compared to a post-Deng quasi authoritarian capitalist model. And whether GDP and GDP per capita is the sole indicator of a luxury sales.
While it is true that India’s GDP at USD 3.5 Trillion is a little under sixth of China’s, the gap is not as wide when compared to Gross National Income, GNI or Income Per Capita a more realistic indicator to assess discretionary consumption. India at USD 7000 in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms is just under a third that of Chinas. Yet China outstrips India by many miles in the luxury segment a USD 350 Billion global category constituted of Swiss watches, apparel, perfumes, bags etc. and brands of the likes of LVMH, Hermes, Kering etc.
Let’s look at the scale at which China operates in Luxury. Swiss Watches are a good starter. China imports a whopping USD 2.5 Billion worth Swiss Watches each year compared to USD 200 Million that India does. That’s roughly 17 Lakh watches annually against 1.25 Lakh in India. Luxury retail is another good indicator. Louis Vuitton has over 30 stores in China compared to just 3 in India. Even Apple which took twenty-five years to open its first store in India already has over 40 stores in China. Annual iPhone sales in India at 6 million units is a far cry from the over 50 million sold in China. Or compare the case of luxury cars. Popular marquee brands like Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi etc. cobble together a sale of 30000 units annually in India. That number exceeds 3 Lakh in China. China by the way at 24 million units is a 6 times bigger market for cars.
Strangely though there is one segment where India outperforms China. Scotch Whisky! USD 350 Million worth was exported into India compared to USD 290 Million to China in 2022 But that’s for another article!
So, the scale at which China operates in Luxury for a similar population count with only 2.6X per capita income dwarfs India in every category. And this is just the mainland comparison not including Hong Kong.
What then is the reason? Surely GDP & GNI are indicators of average prosperity of a nation and its citizens but there are other parameters that drive sales, especially luxury sales. These impact parameters are a long list based on demography, psychography, policy, culture etc. While it is difficult to cover all in depth in a short article, I will attempt to offer a flavor. It will only save impatient luxury brand owners from making impetuous business decisions.
For starters Luxury is a function of urbanization. Only 35% (490 M) of India’s population lives in cities compared to Chinas 63% (882M). India has only 180 urban agglomerates above 3 Lakh compared to Chinas 423. Even amongst top 12 cities, barring Delhi NCR which is more populated than Shanghai, all the rest from Mumbai to Madurai are less populated than Beijing to Dongguan.
Age also matters in Luxury. Older customers apportion more to luxury once life essentials are taken care of. At 38 years, median age of Indians is a full 10 years younger than of the Chinese at 38.
Experiential retail is important in a luxury brands strategy and hence rental costs come into play. For a much smaller economy India’s retail rentals are high. Premium destinations quote around USD 7-10 monthly per Sq. Feet including allied costs which is not far from average mall rentals in China. Besides, China has an oversupply of retail spaces and provinces even offer subsidies to attract anchor brands. In select cases, CP may be more expensive to lease than Wangfujing.
Policy imperative. Luxury Brands prefer total control over their retail operations either directly or through their wholly owned local subsidiaries. In India a 100% control over single brand retail is prohibited till the brand sources inputs worth 30% locally. Pertinent to note that even Apple set up its stores only once their local manufacturing ramped up. Alternatively, brands can at best go to 51% which means it has to rely on local partners who may have the money but may not share the vision and hence reduce the brands enthusiasm. No such hurdles in China. Beside local sourcing and fully owned retail puts less pressure on stock turn than in India.
Add to the lists attributes like funding costs, duties, freight, taxes, exchange rate etc. that make India an expensive market to operate in than China. Bank lending rates in India at over 11% are double that of China. Unit freight costs to reach luxury goods into China, if they are not locally sourced, are cheaper compared with India. Chinese RMB is a stronger currency making imports relatively cheaper and customs duty and GST on luxury goods in India are much higher than China. GST on luxury goods is applied at the highest slab of 28% in India whereas standard VAT rate by comparison in China is a mere 13%.
Operationally India is a much more expensive market to operate in than China and the reason is not just GDP or GNI per capita. Also, the fact that psychographically even rich Indians even today are value conscious and eschew luxury makes matters difficult for Luxury brands. China by comparison is more westernized and amenable to copying western lifestyle.
So, what is the future of Luxury in India. In a single word; Bright. Not in the short term but in the mid to long-term, over say the next ten years, luxury will be a sunrise consumer segment to watch. The sheer headroom and that too over a low base is vast. Urbanization will increase, median age will rise, discretionary affluence will increase, currency will strengthen, infrastructure supply will increase & interest rates will drop, socialistic policy mindset will ease, and India will account for an increasing share of the luxury sector.
And as an end note, it is also not far when Both China and India will also dent the European luxury hegemony and the world will see a few luxury brands emerge from both these countries.
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कहते हैं सत्रहवीं शतब्दी के अमेरिकी गृहयुद्ध के समय में “वोक” शब्द का पहला प्रयोग हुआ था ! अफ्रीकी-अमेरिकी समुदाय के सामान्य बोलचाल वाली शब्दावली में श्वेत वर्चस्ववादियों के खिलाफ चेताने के आव्हान के रूप में इस शब्द ने अपनी यात्रा शुरू की। तत्पश्चाहत जब ऊबे हुए, अति उत्साही, अस्तित्व से वंचित झूटी श्रेशतठा दर्शाने और ढुलमुल तेवर वाले वर्ग के लोग जब इस शब्द का आवश्यकता से अधिक प्रयोग करने लगे तब इस शब्द के भावार्थ का गांभीर्य कम होते हुए हल्का और हास्यास्पद हो गया। सामान्यतः यह शब्द अब एक कृत्रिम और निष्ठाहीन वर्ग के संदर्भ में प्रयोग किया जाता है। “वोक” अपनी पहचान बनाने और अपनी ओर ध्यान आकर्षित करने की चेष्टा में किसी भी संदर्भहीन आंदोलन या मुद्दे का सहारा लेने से नहीं चूकता। इस पाखंडी एवं ढोंगी आचरण के चलते वर्तमान काल में इस श्रेणी के लोगो को पाश्चात्य देशों मे गम्भीरता से नहीं लिया जाता और ‘वोक’ उपनाम अब एक अपमानजनक स्तर तक गिर गया। ब्रिटिश व्यंग्यकार एंड्रयू डॉयल ने तो अपनी 2019 की पुस्तक “वोक” में “टाइटेनिया मैकग्राथ”’ नामक मज़ाक़िया काल्पनिक चरित्र का निर्माण करते हुए पाश्चात्य “वोक” चरित्र को संस्थागत स्वरूप दे दिया है। “वोक” समुदाय के सतत आंदोलनरत रहने के स्वभाव के चलते वर्तमान में “वोक” शब्द कुटिल वामपंथ से भी जुड़ा गया है।
नस्लीय भेदभाव, कट्टर नारीवाद, एलजीबीटीक्यू समर्थन, जलवायु परिवर्तन, वन्यजीव संरक्षण इत्यादि मुद्दों पर चरम वामपंथी सक्रियतवाद में पाश्चात्य “वोक” की विशिष्ट रुचि रहती है। परंतु इन मुद्दों की गम्भीरता को दरकीनार करते हुए अथवा उनकी गहरायी को समझे बिना, या फिर उनके समाधान से हट कर “वोक” केवल अपना उल्लू सीधा करने के उद्येश से इनके समर्थन में खड़ा होता है। स्वयं पर लोगों का ध्यान कैसे आकर्षित किया जाए इसी पर वह केंद्रित होता है। एक अवधी के पश्चात अब लोग “वोक” के इस आडम्बर को भांप भी गए हैं जिसके चलते “वोक” व्यक्तियों को हल्के में लिया जाने लगा है। “वोक” समाज का उपहासास्पद आडम्बर उनके कार्यक्रमों में भी झलकता है। उदाहरण स्वरूप, सशत्र शांतिप्रिय विरोध, वैश्विक भुखमरी के सर्थन में प्रीतिभोज, नारी उत्पीड़न के वरोध में फ़ैशन शो, वन्य संरक्षण के लिये बोनफएर पार्टी इत्यादि जैसे हास्यास्पद विरोधाभास से इनके कार्यक्रम लिप्त होते हैं। चिड़चिड़ा स्वभाव, उत्पीड़न का भाव, सतत आंदोलनरत, विशेषाधिकार से परिपूर्ण होना “वोक” व्यक्तित्व की विशेषता है।
अपने मूल अस्तित्व का आभाव एवं अपनी ओर ध्यान आकर्षित करने की लालसा वोक संस्कृति का आधार हैं। इसमें आश्चर्य नहीं है कि व्यक्तित्व को अस्तिस्व से अधिक महत्व देने वाली पाश्चात्य सभ्यता ही “वोक” समाज की जननी है। अस्तित्व उभारने के लिए योग्यता, उत्कृष्टता और कठिन परिश्रम सर्वोपरि है परंतु व्यक्तिव उभारने के लिए ध्यान आकर्षण करने मात्र से काम बन सकता है। इसी के चलते औसत बुद्दिमत्ता के लोगों को ध्यान आकर्षण की होड़ में वोक सक्रियता सुविधाजनक विकल्प प्रदान करती है। नियम सरल हैं। आप दिखने में जीतने अजीब होंगे, आपकी तरफ उतनी ही आँखें उठेंगी। महिलाओं की वेशभूषा में पुरुष, समलैंगिगता, नग्न आंदोलन, कट्टरपंति व्यवहार, निरर्थक सत्ता प्रतिष्ठान का विरोध इत्यादि ध्यान आकर्षित करने वाले ‘वोक’ कृत्यों और व्यवहार के उत्कृष्ट उदाहरण हैं।
पश्चिम में अब ‘वोकवाद’ उल्लेखनीय रूप से मुख्यधारा में संभागित हो गया है। विशेष रूप से उन युवाओं में जो अपने भ्रमित और प्रभावित हो जाने की उम्र में हैं। यह एक बड़ी आबादी है। उद्यमों और वामपंथी राजनेताओं ने उनमें एक श्रोता वर्ग ढूंढ लिया है। वैश्विक ब्रांड ग्राहकों की खोज में नियमित रूप से वोक मुद्दों के साथ जुड़ते हैं और वामपंथी राजनेता अपने कार्यसिद्धि के लिए वोकवादीययों में इच्छुक अराजकतावादी पा जाते हैं। और यह दोनो ही पसचिम में वोकवाद के चक्र को आगे बढ़ाते चले जाते हैं।
वैसे तो एशियाई संस्कृति से ‘वोकवाद’ अनजान है, पर इसके बीज यहाँ भी अंकुरित होने लगे हैं। भारत का अपना एक “वोकिस्तान” है। आम तौर पर, महानगरों में विशेषाधिकार प्राप्त कुलीन अंग्रेज़ विचारधारा वाले, विशेष रूप से युवा, जिन्हें मेट्रोपप्पू भी कह सकते हैं, भारतीय वोकिस्तान को गठित करता है। इसमें आश्चर्य नहीं है क्योंकि सामान्यतः इसी वर्ग के युवा अमेरिकी वोक-विश्वविद्यालयों में, जो कि वैश्विचक “वोक” संस्कृति के अंकुरण का उपजाऊ खेत है, अपनी शिक्षा प्राप्त करते है ओर अपने मस्तिष्क को “वोक संस्कृति” के चरणो में समर्पित करते है। भारत लौटने पर और भारत में रहते हुए भी सांस्कृतिक स्वरूप में यह वर्ग एक पाश्चात्य बुलबुले में ही जीता है। भारत की तपती धूप और धूल भरे पठारों पर जहां सामान्य वर्ग का भारतीय कड़ी मेहनत करता है, प्रतिस्पर्धा करता है और सफल होता है उस वातावरण में भारत का यह वोकिस्तान अपने आप को असमर्थ पाता है और इसलिए अपने लिए वोकिस्तान का आसान विकल्प चुन लेता है।
भारतीय वोकिस्तान को पहचानना आसान है। आम तौर पर, विरोध प्रदर्शन, कैंडललाइट मार्च, कॉमेडी क्लब आदि में इन्हें पाया जाता है। निजी स्वरूप में ये वर्ग शहर के अभिजात क्लबों, साहित्य उत्सवों, कला उत्सवों आदि मे दिखते हैं। पहचानने के लिए पैनी नजर चाहिए बस । सोशल मीडिया प्रोफाइल कुछ सुराग दे सकता है। इनके संगीत, भोजन, किताबें, छुट्टियां, शौक, भाषा, शिक्षा, पॉप आइकन, आदतें सभी आमतौर पर पश्चिमी होते हैं। आचरण में विरोधाभास यहाँ भी खूब दिख़ेगा। स्टैच्यू ऑफ लिबर्टी के साथ सेल्फी; अच्छा है, स्टैच्यू ऑफ यूनिटी के साथ; नहीं। स्पेन में पैम्प्लोना का खेल रोमांचक है, तमिलनाडु का जल्लीकट्टू नहीं। मैकियावेली होशियार हैं, चाणक्य नहीं। वाशिंगटन का नेशनल मॉल शानदार है, दिल्ली का कर्तव्य पथ नहीं। हैलोवीन के लिए हां है तो होली ना है। मूलतः वोकिस्तान के लिए भारत, भरतीय एवं भारतीयता लो-क्लास और हीन है। क्योंकि इसी से वे अपने आप को दूसरों से ऊपर होने की भावना जागृत कर पाते हैं अथवा उनके अस्तित्व की आधारशिला बना हुआ पाश्चात्य सामाजिक – सांस्कृतिक बुलबुले के फूटने का ख़तरा होता है।
वोकिस्तान पासपोर्ट के प्राप्ति के लिए एक स्पॉन्सर्ड या प्रायोजित जीविका मददगार साबित होती है। आप यदि रोज़गार कमाने में व्यस्त हैं तो शायद वोकिस्तान आपके लिए नहीं है। ख़ानदानी रईस हैं तो फ़ायदे मे रहेंगे परंतु किसी भी प्रकार की प्रायोजित जीवनशैली जैसे सरकारी सब्सिडी, छात्रवृत्ति, मुफ्त छात्रावास, एनजीओ अनुदान आदि आपको पास्पोर्ट दिलाने में मदद दे कर सकते हैं। और यदि आप अपने प्रायोजित अस्तित्व के एवज़ में विनम्रता तो दूर बल्कि घमंड से उसे अपना विशेषाधिकार समझते हैं तो आप पास्पोर्ट के सही हक़दार है। आपके सामान्य ज्ञान की सीमा इंस्टा रील्स, यूट्यूब शॉर्ट्स और अख़बार के पेज-थ्री तक सीमित हो तो और भी खूब! विदेश में छुट्टियां, खास अन्दाज़ में अंग्रेजी उच्चारण, डिजाइनर अध्यात्मवाद, विदेशी मदिरा आदि का आपको शौक़ होना चाहिए या कम से कम इन सब का दिखावा करने के क्षमता तो होनी ही चाहिए। भारत का सामाजिक या सांस्कृतिक ज्ञान ना होना भी “वोकिस्तान” की शुरुआती योग्यता है। आजकल अपने नाम से पहले लैंगिक उपनाम जैसे he-his-her लगाने का भी वोकिस्तान में एक प्रचलन है।
फ्लैश कैंडललाइट विरोध और टी20 धरना वोकिस्तान के पसंदीदा आंदोलन हैं। नियमित रूप से इन में भाग लेने से इन्हें अब एक उपाधि भी मिल चुकी है – आंदोलनजीवी ! जनोपयोगी परियोजनाओं और सामान्य जनमानस को उपयोगी नगरीक सेवाओं के विरोध के आंदोलनो में इनकी ख़ास रुचि रहती है। इन विरोध प्रदर्शनों मे वोकिस्तानियों की संख्या कोई मायने नहीं रखती। अपने उपद्रव से दूसरों को परेशानी होनी चाहिए बस यही मायने रखता है। आंदोलन के मुद्दे का संज्ञान होने की भी आवश्यकता नहीं है। सच कहें तो, वोकिस्तान में बुद्धिमत्ता को कोई वरीयता प्राप्त नहीं है अपितु बेवकूफी और बेहूदा आचरण उन्हें अधिक ध्यान आकर्षण की गारंटी देता है। राजनीतिक रैलियों के लिए ट्रैक्टर-ट्रेलरों में लायी गइ ग्रामीण भीड़ के साथ इसकी तुलना की जा सकती है। लेकिन एक अंतर है। वोकिस्तानी को आंदोलन की जागरूकता कम होती है। वह खुद के वाहन की व्यवस्था करता है, सर्वश्रेष्ठ डिजाइनअर कपड़े पहनता है और शैंपेन ब्रंच और शाम के कॉकटेल के बीच की ऊबा देने वाली शून्यता को भरने के लिए विरोध प्रदर्शन में अपने सुविधानुसार भाग लेता है। आंदोलन में कपड़े भी मायने रखते हैं। समलैंगिक पोशाक, एथनिक पहनावा या फिर फ़ंकी फ़ैशन का आप प्रयोग कर सकते हैं।
पाश्चात्य “वोक” सभ्यता पर निकट भूतकाल में काले बादल मंडराते प्रतीत होते हैं ! सामन्य जनमानस अब उनके प्रति सहिष्णु नहीं दीखता। अपितु “वोकवाद” एवं चरम वोक कृत्य जैसे “न्यूडिस्ट-मार्च” और “पीपल हैव पीरियड्स” जैसे आंदोलनो के प्रति एक घृणात्मक प्रतिक्रिया होती दीखती है। भारतीय वोकिस्तान के प्रति भी एक अससंतोष की भावना प्रतीत होती है जिसके जनआक्रोश में बदलने की सम्भावना है। मेहनतकश सामान्य भारतीय नगरीक इन वोकवदियो के हथकंडो से ऊब गया लगता है ! समय आ गया है कि वोकिस्तान भी अपनी ऊटपटाँग हास्यास्पद हरकतों सा बाज आए और अपने प्रति उठती नकारतमक भावना के प्रति जागृत हो जाए !
जागो वोकिस्तान…… अब भोर भई
https://www.bhaskar.com/opinion/news/vikram-kumar-limses-column-voc-people-have-got-a-title-by-participating-in-regular-movements-andolanjivi-131148182.html?
From pious to pejorative to ridicule, if there is one word that has traversed etymological frontiers in a short span then it is Woke & Wokeism. Rumored to be born amidst throes of American Civil War, this word from colloquial African American lexicon began its journey as a caution call by earnest vigilantes against white supremacists. Thereafter, as primitive vigilantism bifurcated into modern serious activism and flippant posturing it is to the practitioners of latter that the term Woke stuck. Bored, privileged, overzealous, identity seeking activists fell into this flippant posturing class more interested in gaining visibility by identifying with a cause, any cause, than being conscientiously concerned about it. This hypocrisy and non-seriousness did not go unnoticed and in time the moniker Woke degenerated to a level of being lampooned. Titania McGrath, the hilarious fictional character created by British satirist Andrew Doyle in his 2019 book “Woke” has institutionalized Western Woke caricature. Of late Wokeism has even found association with the sinister left.
Extreme left pseudo-activism in the name of blacks, LGBTQ, radical feminism, climate, race, wildlife, or any issue that helps carve an intersectional identity characterizes the Western Woke culture or Wokeism. Their ecosystem is epitomized by hilariously confounding contrasts. Cheese and champagne events for world hunger, armed peaceful protests, environmentalists supported by plastic spewing corporations, cola corporations promoting health, private jets for climate conclaves, fund raising barbeque in aid of wildlife preservation are only few examples. Perpetual victim hood and persecutory delusion characterize the woke personality. Edgy, permanently agitating, self-righteous, virtue signaling is a behavioral pattern.
Identity crisis and attention seeking are cornerstones of Woke culture. Not surprising since it emanates from a society that puts premium on personality over individuality. Merit and excellence are arduous pursuits to stand out in a hypercompetitive society. Woke activism offers convenient alternative for the mediocre. Rules are simple. More the weird more in your face, more the eyeballs. Cross dressing, gender pronouns, illogical anti-establishment, unisex toilets, naked protests, gender activism, hyper-ventilating over patriarchy, radical feminism are classic examples of eyeball garnering woke acts & behavior.
Significant mainstreaming of woke culture has happened in the West. Especially amongst youth in their confused & influenceable years making it a sizeable population. Enterprises and Left politicians have found in them a gullible audience. Leading global brands routinely align with Woke causes and Left politics finds in them a willing anarchist fueling the Wokeism cycle.
While Wokeism is alien to Asian culture, green shoots have sprouted. India has its own “Wokistan”. Generally, the privileged elite anglosphere in metros, especially the youth, the Metropappu, largely constitute India’s Wokistan. Not surprising since many in this segment have incubated their minds in the global petri-dish of Woke culture, the US Wokeversity. This class lives in a culturally incongruent bubble, unable to compete in the dusty plains where Bharat toils, competes and succeeds.
Wokistan spotting is easy. Public sightings are generally at flash protests, candlelight marches, comedy clubs etc. Private preserves are elite clubs, lit fests, art festivals etc. For solo sightings a keen eye is required. Social media profile can offer a clue. Their music, food, books, holidays, hobbies, language, education, pop icons, habits are usually all Western.
Confounding contrasts remain a common strain even in Wokistan. Selfie with Statue of Liberty is hep, Statue of Unity is not. Pamplona is exciting, Jallikattu is not. Machiavelli is smart, Chanakya is not. National Mall is brilliant, Kartavya Path is not. Halloween is yes, Holi is not. For Wokistan India basically sucks. Because if it doesn’t then it puts Wokistan in an existential crisis. It puts their socio-culturally incongruent bubble at risk.
To be a card-carrying member of Wokistan, a Wokistani, one must be living a fully funded existence. Being busy earning ones keep can be a disadvantage. Born into privilege helps but government subsidy, university scholarship, free hostel accommodation, NGO grant basically any kind of funded existence, with an overbearing sense of entitlement puts you in pole position. Insta Reels and Page Three must be your holy grail for news and information. Luxury holidays, accented speech, designer spiritualism, exotic wines must be your pastime. Even if not in reality you must at least put up a manageable pretense. Socio Cultural ignorance about India is of course base level qualification and a pronoun before your name is a visible passport.
Flash candlelight protests and T20 dharanas are a Wokistans favorite watering holes. Regular attendees even have a name now. Andolanjeeevis! Protests on issues that obstruct mass public utility projects & citizens’ rights rank on top. Numbers don’t matter at these protests. Inconveniencing others and creating nuisance does. Being educated about the cause is also not a requirement. In fact, there is little premium for intellect in Wokistan. Dumb & disingenuous utterances guarantee extra eyeballs. One could draw a parallel with crowds that are huddled into tractor trailers for political rallies. But there is a difference. A Wokistani is less aware, organizes own transport, dresses up in best designers and picks a convenient time to attend the protest to fill that boring void between champagne brunch and evening cocktail. Outward appearance also matters. Cross dressing is reserved for the core group, ethnics are for pseudo intellectual Wokistanis and funky careless with bling and a fashionably unkempt look works for the celebrity Wokistani.
Education – Our Broken Intellectual Infrastructure Time to envision “OUR” own
Wokeism in West has however tipped over. There is general disgust all round. Amused bystanders are no longer tolerant. There is a reactionary push back. Of late a rather severe one even. Hopefully Wokistan takes a cue. Disgust seems to be mounting even in India. Bewildered masses no longer identify with antics of the privileged. Besides the Woke movement is after all an alien import. Extreme Woke acts like “Nudist- march” & “people have periods” are eschewed even by hardened Wokistanis. Cornerstones of Woke culture, attention seeking and identity crisis, do not go with our ethos in any case. Heck, those who wrote the Veda’s or built the Ellora temple didn’t bother to even put their names against their creation!
Its time Wokistan realizes that reaction is not far even in India. Besides what’s the point in being painted as a ludicrous lampoon!
“California Orange” to “Nagpur Orange” Our disgraceful self-flagellating habit
Good Morning Wokistan …. It’s time to wake-up … else India will pass you by!